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| Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) in China, Europe, USA and India: 1950-2050 |
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Source: World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision. United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Population
Division, New York. See: www.unpopulation.org |
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The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) is a synthetic demographic rate that measures the average number of daughters per woman who survive to average reproductive age. Essentially, the Net Reproduction Rate measures, to what extent one generation is replaced by the next generation - taking into account both the level of (period) fertility and mortality. A Net Reproduction Rate of 1.0 indicates that one generation is exactly replaced by the next generation. A NRR of 0.7 indicates that one generation is replaced by only 70% - the population is declining 30% from generation to generation. The Net Reproduction Rate is probably the most accurate (period) measure of the actual demographic situation in a particular population. It eliminates age structure effects, which can seriously distort the rates of population growth or decline, as well as the birth and death rates. |
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Today, in Europe, the United States of America and - surprisingly - in China the Net Reproduction Rate is below 1.0, which indicates that all three have a population that is intrinsically declining from births and deaths. Only age-structure effect and massive immigration in the case of Europe and the United States of America prevent the actual decline of the population between generations. |
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The United States of America has been intrinsically declining since the period of 1970-1975; Europe has been declining between generations since the period of 1975-1980 and China fell below a NRR level of 1.0 in the period of 1990-1995. |
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India, on the other hand, still has a Net Reproduction Rate of about 1.1 - indicating a 10% intrinsic increase of the population between generations. According to the United Nations World Population Prospects, India will only fall below a NRR level of 1.0 in the period of 2020-2025. |
